Heat vs. Celtics Game 7 picks, best bets: Why Boston will reach NBA Finals despite Miami’s home-court edge

 Heat vs. Celtics Game 7 picks, best bets: Why Boston will reach NBA Finals despite Miami’s home-court edge

With the 2021-22 NBA regular season already on the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one selection for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Selected Game | The Miami Heat against the Boston Celtics

I’ve been sick of this pick since Game 6 ended. Boston can’t deny being the “better” team in this series. The Celtics outscored the Heat by 33 points in six games. Their season-long track record is also even more impressive. Their second-round win against the Bucks was more than anything Miami did in the first two rounds, and after starting the regular season 23-24, they finished 28-7 with a plus-15.5 net rating. . Heat, at the same time, is more moderate plus-4.5. There’s a reason the overwhelming consensus that comes with this series is that Boston will win.

And yet, home teams won nearly 80 percent of Game 7s. Should that matter in a series where home teams are 2-4? Tingali? It is also worth asking how willing we are to reject the one-time sample in the Miami case because it has exceeded the expectations of two of the past three postseasons. The Heat are probably better suited to playoff basketball than regular-season basketball. They also continued this series despite facing more severe injuries than Boston. The Heat look healthier now than they did in Games 4 and 5. They’re definitely not at full strength. Do that what you want. You get points when you take the Heat. Game 7 is always close.

Finally, I lived in Boston for a few reasons:

  • as Seth Partnow Pointed to Twitter, Miami recently had one of the most late-clock shooting shows of all time. They had an effective field-goal percentage of 61.4 in the last four seconds of the shot clock. That’s up from 36.4 percent the rest of the postseason, and 16 percent of their shots came in the final four seconds. If the Heat make the kind of shots they did in Game 6, they will win. This is a sample of a game. Another hot night is not out of the realm of possibility. But it’s a huge outlier in a show. Typically, defenses will work well if they can clear the shot clock on 16 percent of possessions.
  • The Celtics have an incredible capacity for futility. Turnovers, unfortunately, have to be expected at this point. But will Marcus Smart really lead Boston in field-goal attempts in Game 7? Will six of the top seven players rack up at least four fouls? If Boston could only escape on its own, there should have been a much quicker time in Game 7. That’s what happened with this win.
  • Miami’s injuries are more significant than Boston’s, and it’s reasonable to think how much was gained in Game 6. Jimmy Butler played 46 minutes after three games being injured. Remember when he scored 35 to heroically extend the 2020 Finals to Game 5? Well … he scored 12 in Game 6, the end of the series. He already has five 35 -point games this postseason. In games immediately following the first four, he averaged a more average 21.8 points per game. Asking an injured Butler to match his performance in Game 6 can be difficult, but he needs to. The Heat’s unnamed Butler scored just 64 points in Game 6. Of those 64, 18 came from Kyle Lowry, who played 37 minutes after averaging just 25 in the first three games of this series. he played. How to manage his hamstring. load? Having Tyler Herro can help the bad … but at this point, he’s probably more harmful than good. Although healthy, he has to contribute a lot to the offense to justify his poor defense. Is that possible with a serious groin injury? Will his presence just give the Celtics a target to hunt on the other end? There are no good answers here. Maybe the Heat are so hard that they can just handle it in another game. There are so many questions to ask.

So, after being burned in Game 6, I was reluctant to take on the Celtics and hoped for the very best. Selected: Celtics -3

naa ko covered Game 7 points total previously, to keep it short, they almost always score very low. Write that down to Game 7 nerves, defenses with a better understanding of what offenses are running, pure fatigue, whatever, but I always take the bottom line because, as I wrote about more deep here, the numbers suggest that it usually hits. Selected: Under 195.5

In his last four games, PJ Tucker has averaged just under 17 points, rebounds and assists per game. Remember, that included a Game 4 blowout where he only played 21 minutes. Assuming he can’t get into foul trouble, he’ll play even more in Game 7, including a few minutes in the backup center ready for rebounding opportunities. Look at the line this way: Say Tucker made a 3-pointer corner and another of the little floaters he loved all postseason. He’s had at least one assist in his last seven playoff games, so you need seven rebounds to guarantee a win, and that’s to say he didn’t get many points or assists. There are so many ways you can win this bet to get to the bottom. The pick: Tucker over 13.5 combined points, rebounds and assists

Source link

Related post